Probably not on that evidence alone. Heat pumps deliver air at roughly 90 to 100 degrees, below skin temperature, so it feels cool on your hand while still heating the house; a furnace delivers noticeably hotter air in shorter bursts. The real tests are whether the house holds its set point, whether ice on the outdoor unit clears in defrost, and whether auxiliary heat is running constantly (the electric bill notices that one). If the house drifts colder while the unit runs, or the unit stays iced, that is a service call with a real fault behind it.
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